APPLIED URBAN SAFETY ANALYTICS / RESEARCH RELEASE 1.0
Collision risk,
measured honestly.
Interactive, aggregate-only next-week collision forecasting across San Diego Police beats. Not individual-crash prediction.
EVALUATIONSan Diego
Police beats
01 / GEOGRAPHIC EXPLORER
Aggregate beat risk
Every polygon is an official SDPD law beat. No individual crash locations are inferred or displayed.
Official SDPD law-beat boundaries · aggregate predicted count, not point-level crash probability.
02 / TEMPORAL FORECAST EXPLORER
Citywide: held-out replay
Select an area from the map or ranking to inspect its held-out forecast.
03 / MODEL PERFORMANCE & ERROR DIAGNOSTICS
Evaluation beyond a single metric
All comparisons come from a chronological 2025 holdout; the test year was never used to fit the selected model or calibrator.
Each mark represents one verified held-out beat-week. Hover for the beat and week.
OCCURRENCE CALIBRATION
Calibrator fit on 2024 only; shown against held-out 2025 observed frequency.
04 / FEATURE IMPORTANCE & RESEARCH SCOPE
Interpretability with limits
Permutation importance measures held-out predictive association, not causal influence.