APPLIED URBAN SAFETY ANALYTICS / RESEARCH RELEASE 1.0

Collision risk,
measured honestly.

Interactive, aggregate-only next-week collision forecasting across San Diego Police beats. Not individual-crash prediction.

2025HELD-OUT
EVALUATION
San Diego
Police beats

01 / GEOGRAPHIC EXPLORER

Aggregate beat risk

Every polygon is an official SDPD law beat. No individual crash locations are inferred or displayed.

DISPLAY
Loading official SDPD beat boundaries…

Official SDPD law-beat boundaries · aggregate predicted count, not point-level crash probability.

02 / TEMPORAL FORECAST EXPLORER

Citywide: held-out replay

Select an area from the map or ranking to inspect its held-out forecast.

Observed reportsGradient boostingSeasonal naive
Loading verified replay

03 / MODEL PERFORMANCE & ERROR DIAGNOSTICS

Evaluation beyond a single metric

All comparisons come from a chronological 2025 holdout; the test year was never used to fit the selected model or calibrator.

Observed vs predicted1:1 reference

Each mark represents one verified held-out beat-week. Hover for the beat and week.

OCCURRENCE CALIBRATION

Predicted probability →Observed frequency

Calibrator fit on 2024 only; shown against held-out 2025 observed frequency.

04 / FEATURE IMPORTANCE & RESEARCH SCOPE

Interpretability with limits

Permutation importance measures held-out predictive association, not causal influence.